Somaliland is known for solving political disputes through consensus, a practice that widely receives admiration. However, the renewed political dispute indicates that Somaliland needs to have strong independent institutions that have the trust of stakeholders. Consensus is based on mutual acceptance and compromise from all parties. Therefore, it is not a sustainable conflict resolution model in a democratic country where a difference of opinion is a must.
The way forwards is categorized into short-term and durable solutions. The Centre for Policy Analysis views that drastic political, institutional, and legal reforms are needed if Somaliland’s gains in a democracy are to be sustained.
6.1 Short term solutions
Obviously, the short-term solution is to get a way out of the current deadlock. It is crucial to find a trusted third party to mediate the political parties. The sides in this conflict presented their positions. However, it is key to understand their interests and fears. The ruling party intends to seek an extension for the President. The unexpected loss of the May 2021 parliamentary and local
council elections changed the President’s outlook on the future. His party seems unprepared for a presidential election due to many factors, including an internal dispute over the successor of President Muse Behi. On the course of a few months, President Behi promised to open the registration of new political associations, retracted that by rejecting the changes to Law No. 14, and again pushed the registration of new political associations. His position changed with the prospect of success in elections, not on principles.
The opposition’s main fear is the new political associations. If new political associations compete before the presidential elections, there is uncertainty about whether the opposition parties could survive. Even if one of them survives, the competition will change the entire dynamics of Somaliland’s politics and might disrupt alliances built by the main opposition party, WADDANI. Therefore, the opposition parties’ interest is to hold the presidential election before conducting elections for political associations and parties. Thus, they are not necessarily against an extension of President Behi’s term as long as the presidential election takes place first.
The opposition and ruling party rhetoric inflame the situation. The political leaders should stop the polarising and divisive politics and the inharmonious language that groups people into clan affiliations and loyalties. Dominating identity politics undermines cohesion and solidarity.
Possible scenarios
The following are possible scenarios. The order does not show precedence or preference.25
- Extensions: it is a possible scenario for both the president and the political parties to gain an extension of terms. The term of the president will expire on 13 December 2022, whereas the license of the political parties will also expire in December 2022. The sides in the conflict might agree to push both elections on a future timetable based on technical recommendations made by the National Electoral Commission. In this scenario, the presidential election takes place first, followed by the elections for the political associations/parties.
- Holding both elections on the same date: On May 2021, Somaliland conducted parliamentary and local council elections. The experience of May 2021 can be replicated this year by holding the presidential election and the elections for political parties/associations on the same date.
- Extension of the president’s term: This involves extending the president’s term and holding the elections for political associations/parties this year or early next year.
- Presidential election on 13 November 2022: It relates to conducting the presidential election on 13 November 2022 as scheduled and pushing the elections for political parties/associations next year.
6.2 Durable solutions
The present-day disagreement and its substance are not new to Somaliland. Since 2008, Somaliland has been amidst continual meaningless and avoidable political wrangling that threatens the stability of Somaliland and its democratization process. Solutions have been short-term painkillers that did not address the root causes. The culmination of polarization, poverty, and inept institutions that failed to deliver services or live up to their promises position Somaliland on a dangerous path. Therefore, Somaliland’s leaders should take their responsibilities seriously and create a conducive environment that can sustain democracy and stability in conformity with the constitutions, the rule of law, and democratic principles.
v Judicial reform
Somaliland needs to reform the judiciary. The judiciary shall be impartial and independent and have the resources necessary to perform its tasks. Without an independent and impartial judiciary, democracy is not fully functional, and it is prone to violence or political instability. It is particularly demanding Somaliland to strengthen the Supreme Court, which serves as a constitutional court. However, the experience of Somaliland in the last thirty years demonstrates that there is an urgent need to establish a separate constitutional court to work exclusively on constitutional cases. Before the creation of a constitutional court, the Supreme Court should be granted clear powers with a written procedure on how to handle constitutional cases. The lack of law that governs constitutional matters creates uncertainty.
- Security sector reform
It is important for Somaliland to reform its police and other security and law enforcement agencies to create independent, impartial, and professional institutions. It is vital to demilitarise and depoliticize the police. It should not operate under the command of the politicians but on the rule of law.
- Reformed electoral body
The composition and nominations of the members of the National Electoral Commission are politically charged. The existing electoral body needs comprehensive reform that distances the institution from the political parties. Lessons can be learned from other young democracies in Africa by making a comparative analysis.
- Inclusive political system
Somaliland should embrace inclusivity in terms of meaningful participation of women in leadership, elimination of ageism that prefers the older generation, and balancing key positions of power with the different communities. Communities in Sool and Sanaag are marginalized, and power is concentrated in the central regions of Somaliland (Hargeisa, Sahil, and Togdheer).
- Period elections
Extension of terms and postponements of elections undermine democracy. Somaliland should hold elections timely and periodically and embark on a process that ends all forms of term extensions. It is urgent and necessary to have the Guurti elections without delay. At the same time, the Parliament should enact legislation prohibiting the extension of terms and fixing election dates in law.